AI Circle Daily
https://aicircle.news/archive/2026-07-13?category=finance&lang=en
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Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, sending oil prices up over 3% after tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran over the weekend.
Take: A de facto blockade of the Strait would disrupt ~20% of global oil supply. This is a game-changer for energy markets and risk appetite — brace for volatility and potential stagflation trades.
US stock index futures fell as Iran tensions escalated and the Q2 earnings season kicked off.
Take: Geopolitical risk is front and center, but earnings will test stretched valuations. Bank earnings this week are the first real test.
EUR/USD fell to around 1.1400 as heightened US-Iran tensions drove safe-haven demand for the dollar.
Take: The dollar is benefiting from safe-haven flows, but the euro zone is also exposed to energy disruptions. EUR/USD could test 1.12 if tensions persist.
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham died of a heart ailment at 71. He was a key Trump ally and had just returned from Ukraine.
Take: Graham's death could shift Senate dynamics on foreign policy, especially Ukraine aid and Iran hardline stance. Expect some legislative paralysis near-term.
Sources say the Bank of Japan may upgrade its growth forecast while maintaining vigilance on inflation risks.
Take: A hawkish tilt from the BOJ could strengthen the yen and pressure Japanese equities. Watch for any hints on rate path.
Fed Chair Powell will deliver his first congressional testimony, with fresh inflation data due that will shape the July rate decision.
Take: The market is pricing in a pause, but a hot CPI could rekindle rate hike fears. Powell's tone will be key for duration positioning.
As earnings season kicks off, AI investment remains front and center, with oil playing a secondary role in market direction.
Take: AI hype is still the main driver, but rising oil could shift sector rotation. Tech earnings need to deliver to sustain multiples.
This week brings a triple test of earnings season, inflation data, and Iran tensions, which could drive volatility in near-record markets.
Take: Three major catalysts in one week — a recipe for sharp moves. Volatility is likely to spike; defensive positioning may pay off.
Among major banks reporting this week, Citigroup is expected to show the most improvement, though it still has a long way to its target.
Take: Citi's results will set the tone for the banking sector. A beat could lift financials, but a miss would add to recession fears.
Analysts have actually raised estimates heading into Q2 results, thanks to energy and tech sectors, bucking the usual downward trend.
Take: Rising estimates set a high bar — companies need to beat to move stocks. Energy and tech will be the key swing factors.