AI Circle Daily
https://aicircle.news/archive/2026-07-30?category=finance&lang=en
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The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with three members favoring a hike. Chair Warsh called it a 'good family fight'.
Take: The split is more hawkish than expected, and the market had been underpricing a hike. Long-end yields surged as bonds are calling the Fed's bluff on inflation.
Major equity indexes had their worst Fed Day since Dec 2024, while the 30-year yield hit levels not seen since 2007.
Take: The crash cushion is gone; the market is re-pricing rate-hike risk. Both stocks and bonds are selling off—classic 'bad news is bad news' as liquidity tightens.
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said the divergence in the Treasury curve shows investors' skepticism that the Fed will follow through on inflation.
Take: The bond market is screaming for action. If the Fed drags its feet, long rates will keep rising, crushing risk asset valuations.
Meta issued a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast and narrowed its capex range for the year, with dwindling free cash flow.
Take: The cost-cutting narrative is played out. Ad revenue is slowing, AI returns are uncertain—at these valuations, a miss is deadly.
Microsoft plans to significantly increase capital spending on data centers and office buildings, citing strong AI demand, and sees positive free cash flow for the new fiscal year.
Take: Microsoft is all-in on AI, and the market loves it. But the capex binge extends the payoff horizon—if AI monetization disappoints, this rally is vulnerable.
Iran launched a surprise attack, all missiles intercepted. Trump said the US will give Iran a 'beating'.
Take: Geopolitical risk remains high. The USO ETF is outperforming crude futures massively, signaling a risk-off bid into oil.
Samsung Electronics posted record second-quarter operating profit, topping estimates on strong AI chip demand.
Take: AI demand is still driving Asian tech giants, but the stock has already rallied. The key is whether pricing power in HBM and other products can hold.
The United States Oil Fund has climbed 58% since the Iran war started, more than double WTI crude futures' gain.
Take: The ETF premium shows a risk-off bid from both retail and institutional investors. But watch out for roll costs—holding USO long-term is expensive.
Starbucks posted its fourth straight quarter of same-store sales growth, with trendy products and faster service under CEO Brian Niccol. Shares jumped.
Take: Starbucks is cool again, but the valuation has already rerated. The question is whether growth can sustain amid a softening consumer.
The US Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% month-over-month in June, the sharpest drop since 2020, reversing May's 0.5% increase.
Take: The headline is a big miss to the downside, but the market isn't buying it—energy and shelter costs remain elevated. The Fed's internal split suggests inflation is stickier than the data shows.