AI Circle Daily
https://aicircle.news/archive/2026-09-12?category=finance&lang=en
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August CPI came in at 3.4% y/y and +0.4% m/m, driven by energy, with core running hot too. Traders now price a better-than-70% chance of a quarter-point hike next week.
Take: This is the only thing that's actually being priced this week. Bonds moved first — the 10-year is knocking on 5% — while equities still bet the Fed blinks. That gap is the trade.
The 10-year yield hit 4.98% intraday and sits at 4.95%, right at the 5% breakout line, with CPI the swing factor.
Take: 5% isn't a psychological level, it's a positioning level. A clean break forces a re-rating of the equity discount rate, and long-duration growth eats it first — no earnings story saves you.
Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline after repeated drone attacks from Iraq, as Iran-allied Houthis escalate strikes this week.
Take: This is where the oil bid and the inflation scare come from. Kill the pipeline and the risk premium comes back — which only hardens the Fed's hand. Geopolitics and policy are pulling the same way.
With inflation reaccelerating, Fed Chair Warsh faces fresh pressure to hike — which would be the first increase in over three years, with tariffs also keeping prices up.
Take: The question isn't whether, it's whether Warsh has the spine to go with political heat on. If he does, it's a credibility rebuild — and the market hasn't priced that tail yet.
The 2-year Treasury yield jumped after CPI, and eurozone yields opened higher with the 10-year Bund at a new 15-year high.
Take: Global duration is getting sold as one trade, not a US-only story. A Bund breakout means Europe's fiscal and inflation narrative is repricing too — relative-value doors are opening.
Nvidia is reportedly in talks to invest in Anthropic's large IPO, per sources.
Take: Nvidia moving from selling shovels to buying the miners. It's a moat play, but it also smells like circular financing — the AI story keeps levering up while exits lean harder on private marks.
Economists note the Fed historically hasn't been content to hike just once — the market could face three hikes.
Take: One hike is noise, three is a trend. The real risk is front-end repricing dragging the whole curve up, hitting valuations and credit spreads at the same time.
CPI rose 0.4% m/m in August, the fastest since April, as surging gas prices lifted inflation to 3.4% and hike odds jumped.
Take: Energy is the engine of this inflation. Until oil backs off, core won't cool — and the market can shelve its rate-cut fantasy.
Iran's Pezeshkian and Russia's Putin slammed Western sanctions and pushed the BRICS bloc to deepen trade ties.
Take: Another data point for the de-dollarization narrative. No near-term pricing impact, but it's a slow variable in the reserve-currency story — gold and local-currency settlement keep getting a bid.
Apollo is reportedly interested in J&J's orthopedics unit in a potential $20 billion deal, per Bloomberg.
Take: A mega-PE buyer stepping into healthcare assets says the credit machine still has bullets and leveraged finance isn't shut. Bullish for M&A and PE — as long as financing costs can absorb higher rates.