Headline CPI rose 3.7% y/y, above the 3.6% forecast, with gasoline up 9.1% m/m accounting for over half the monthly gain — and the market immediately repriced a hike back in.
Take: This is the only variable that actually traded this week. Sticky inflation plus pre-midterm political heat means the Fed's 'no rush' line doesn't square with the data; duration and growth stocks eat it first, so don't rush the dip-buy.