AI Circle Daily
https://aicircle.news/archive/2026-10-28?category=finance&lang=en
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The Fed is expected to stand pat at its final meeting before the midterms, with a hot September CPI still not enough to clear the bar for a hike.
Take: Markets are betting on a hawkish pause — no move but tough talk. The real trade is the December pricing in rates, not this statement.
Inflation is moving the wrong way while the labor market stays firm — a mix that argues for higher rates, leaving Warsh to explain why not.
Take: This is a credibility test. If the explanation doesn't hold, the long end and inflation breakevens will vote for him. Front-end anchored, back-end steeper — that's the trade.
Treasury and French government bond yields edged up as investors waited on this week's Fed and ECB decisions.
Take: Both sides are in wait-and-see mode, but the drift is one way — up. Duration holders are feeling it; whoever blinks first sparks the rally.
The Korean chipmaker's third-quarter profit beat sharply, powered by AI memory demand.
Take: AI hardware is still printing real money — very different from the software narrative trade. The memory upcycle isn't done; HBM earnings are harder than the story.
CoreWeave and other AI names rose as investors dug into Anthropic's IPO filing and saw the same trends that carried AI stocks most of the year.
Take: One S-1 rescuing the whole AI complex shows the market lacks an anchor, not conviction. Treating an IPO filing as fundamentals — vol will teach you a lesson.
AI carried the US market in September; in October it's being carried out on a stretcher, with the rest of the market now leaving Big Tech behind.
Take: Classic leadership rotation — the leader becomes the drag while breadth actually improves. Don't rush to buy the AI dip; first check if money is really rotating out.
Major Indian brokerages are opening US stock access just as the local market gets battered, and retail is rushing into Nvidia, SpaceX and Apple.
Take: Cross-border flows at the capillary level — when domestic returns die, retail votes with its feet. Pressure on Indian valuations, marginal bid for US equities.
Robinhood's CFO says volatility didn't scare traders off chip stocks 'they had really done research on' — but the crypto slump burned the broker itself.
Take: Retail doing homework on chips while getting hammered in crypto says a lot — risk appetite is alive, just pickier. The crypto-propelled brokerage model is biting back.
The Energy secretary told CNBC the administration may let more Russian diesel onto the market, though analysts say the volumes are too small to move prices.
Take: Political gesture, not real supply. Diesel cracks are the tell — this volume won't fix the tightness, so don't short products on the headline.
Silver fell to an 11-month low Tuesday morning, dropping under $53 as the rate decision loomed.
Take: Real rates up, dollar firm — precious metals take the hit first, and high-beta silver leads. This is a liquidity thermometer; don't catch the knife.