AI Circle Daily
https://aicircle.news/archive/2026-10-29?category=finance&lang=en
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The FOMC held at 3.75%-4% on a 10-2 vote despite sticky inflation, with Warsh citing an 'information-rich' period ahead. The 10-year yield has already pushed above 5%.
Take: Classic pre-midterm freeze. The real tell is the 5% 10-year — the market is pricing a live December hike. Don't rush to add duration.
Alphabet missed on both lines for the first time in nearly four years, held 2026 capex flat and guided to a big 2027 increase. Even doubling cloud revenue couldn't save it — the stock fell 10%.
Take: AI is eating search monetization — that's a valuation framework problem, not one-quarter noise. With capex going higher, the FCF story needs re-underwriting.
Microsoft beat on the back of 48% Azure growth while keeping spending in check, sending shares up 4%.
Take: Same AI capex theme, but Microsoft proved it can spend and still earn. Next to Alphabet, money keeps crowding into the certainty trade.
Nvidia's $12.9 billion purchase of Hugging Face is drawing a Department of Justice inquiry.
Take: AI M&A is hitting the regulatory wall. This isn't just an Nvidia issue — ecosystem consolidation may slow, and that premium deserves a haircut.
DoorDash's deal to acquire Instacart could be announced as early as Thursday morning, valuing Instacart at roughly $17 billion, per CNBC sources.
Take: Delivery and grocery are finally merging to stop the bleeding. Scale for profit, sure — but integration is the real test. Don't just buy the synergy story.
FedEx beat top and bottom lines for the third quarter of its realigned fiscal year and raised its outlook.
Take: Logistics is the thermometer for real demand. A raised guide says volumes aren't collapsing — a positive marginal signal for cyclicals and risk appetite.
Bloomberg reported a possible Marvell acquisition of Lumentum, with an agreement potentially next week, sending the stock higher.
Take: Optical consolidation continues, driven by AI data-center demand. The semi M&A pipeline is heating up — watch second-tier optical names.
ServiceNow's earnings miss overshadowed a raised AI outlook, and even growth in multimillion-dollar AI deals didn't win over software skeptics.
Take: Enterprise software wallets are tightening. AI bookings sound loud, but the P&L conversion lags the multiple — software still has froth to squeeze.
Fortinet shares took a dive after earnings as growth slowed significantly in one of its business segments, dragging cybersecurity stocks broadly lower.
Take: The cyber high-growth narrative is cracking. This is among the richest-valued cohorts — when growth slips, multiple compression hits fastest.
Australia's Star Entertainment accepted a A$183.6 million anti-money-laundering penalty.
Take: Gaming regulation keeps tightening and cross-border compliance costs are rising. For casino operators it's a double hit to earnings and licensing.